The Firestorm: Predictions for Conference Realignment – UPDATED – 10/19/11

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And the plot thickens.  The Mountain West has merged with Conference USA to form what right now could be considered a league of over 20 teams.  But the key words here are…..right now.

The Big East is still in the process of their own expansion, and are targeting current Mountain West and Conference USA teams.  From the Mountain West, Air Force and Boise State have been connected recently with the Big East. 

And from Conference USA: SMU, Houston, and UCF are under consideration. From the Independents: Navy, and Army, and Temple is under consideration from the MAC.

So this new “Mountain USA” league, before it’s all said and done could end up being about a 14 team conference once the Big East is finished.  The real question though is does the Big East deserve to maintain its status as a BCS Conference?

Boise State is the only one of the schools under consideration by the Big East for expansion that could be thought of as a football power right now.  But with a step up in competition, they may not be able to maintain that status.  Also, in comparison to the other BCS Conferences, the Big East’s line up looks rather watered down with the addition of teams from non-BCS conferences.

The Big East has recently raised its exit fee cost, so it will be a little harder for teams to leave now.  But with teams like Louisville, West Virginia, Rutgers, and UConn still being looked at by other conferences for possible expansion, I doubt even the raised exit fee would stop them from leaving if a better offer presented itself.  So right now it’s a waiting game.

Missouri is still being rumored to move to the SEC, and all signs are pointing to this becoming a reality.  Since the SEC is reluctant to add teams from states where they already have a member, it makes sense that Missouri would be a logical choice for expansion.  Like Texas A&M, Missouri adds a new television market for the SEC to renegotiate its television contracts, which is the driving force behind this re-alignment in the first place.  

With the addition of TCU, and the possible loss of Missouri that would put the Big 12 at nine teams, and they would more than likely want to get back to at least ten teams, and eventually back to twelve.  The Big 12 has been talking to BYU about joining the conference, but no deal has been made as of yet, and the talks are ongoing. 

Louisville and West Virginia have also been linked to the Big 12, and they could also be considering teams from the Mountain West like San Diego State and Colorado State.  Louisville and West Virginia would bring more football prestige, but San Diego State and Colorado State would bring coveted television markets to a conference struggling to stay alive.

It was revealed by the Boston College Athletic Director that they used their influence to keep UConn out of the ACC, at least for now, and that ESPN may have had some involvement in this as well.  This makes sense because again, the majority of the realignment we are seeing is being driven by the acquisition of new television markets, and ESPN is a major entity behind most of the major television contracts for the conferences.

The Big 10 and the Pac-12 so far have decided stay at twelve members at this time, but will no doubt be watching closely to see how the newly expanded ACC and SEC make out in re-negotiating their television deals.